Average mortgage rates remained almost steady yesterday. So, there has still been no noticeable bounce following those rates' record-breaking tumble on Nov. 10.
So far this morning, it's looking as if mortgage rates today might move lower. But that could change later in the day.
|Conventional 30 year fixed||6.753%||6.782%||-0.12%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||5.938%||5.97%||+0.04%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||6.482%||6.539%||-0.27%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||6.522%||6.618%||+0.02%|
|30 year fixed FHA||6.508%||7.288%||+0.1%|
|15 year fixed FHA||6.133%||6.663%||+0.05%|
|30 year fixed VA||6.421%||6.654%||+0.21%|
|15 year fixed VA||6.375%||6.736%||+0.09%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don't change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
Of course, there's a chance that mortgage rates will fall over the next few months. But I reckon rises are more likely.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:
Here's a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that's no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won't achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. However, be aware that "intraday swings" (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Here are some things you need to know:
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Mortgage rates have been becalmed since their dramatic tumble on Nov. 10. Indeed, according to Mortgage News Daily's archive, they were just 2 basis points higher last night than they were on the morning of Nov. 11.
And a basis point is one-hundredth of 1% (0.01%). So those 2 bps really do represent an imperceptible difference.
Ever since that tumble, I've been predicting that mortgage rates would bounce back, at least to a limited extent. But no. Not a sign of one.
For once, I doubt I was wrong to expect one. The Federal Reserve and leading figures in the financial media have all been saying that markets called their play wrongly on Nov. 10.
The fall in mortgage rates was triggered by a single better-than-expected inflation report. And Investing 101 says you never bet heavily on a just one month's report. But betting heavily is precisely what Wall Street did.
So, why's there still been no bounce? I haven't a clue. And, over the weekend, my best guess was a metaphor: Investors are sticking their fingers in their ears and chanting la-la-la-la.
Of course, there's still a possibility of investors suddenly recognizing how exposed they are and pushing mortgage rates higher. Or they might choose to wait to see how the next couple of inflation reports turn out. They're due on Dec. 1 and Dec. 13.
If those confirm the Nov. 10 report's inflation trend, mortgage rates might fall even further. But if they show it to be an outlier, stand by for a big — if belated — bounce.
To catch up and to discover more background, please read the weekend edition of this report.
According to Freddie Mac's archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie's Nov. 17 report put that same weekly average at 6.61%, sharply down from the previous week's 7.08%.
Belatedly, from Nov. 17, Freddie has stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later the time of day at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's forecast appeared on Nov. 22, the MBA's on Oct. 23 and Freddie's on Oct. 21.
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn't been wildly impressive.
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
"Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan."
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.