Fivestar Lakeshore Blog Home

Subscribe and receive email notifications of new blog posts.




rss logo RSS Feed
Buying A Home | 2 Posts
Holland, MI | 20 Posts
Home ideas | 6 Posts
Mortgage | 36 Posts
Uncategorized | 113 Posts
West Michigan | 6 Posts
November
23

Mortgage and refinance rates today, Nov. 22, 2022

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates remained almost steady yesterday. So, there has still been no noticeable bounce following those rates' record-breaking tumble on Nov. 10.

So far this morning, it's looking as if mortgage rates today might move lower. But that could change later in the day.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Nov 23rd, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 6.753% 6.782% -0.12% 
Conventional 15 year fixed 5.938% 5.97% +0.04% 
Conventional 20 year fixed 6.482% 6.539% -0.27% 
Conventional 10 year fixed 6.522% 6.618% +0.02% 
30 year fixed FHA 6.508% 7.288% +0.1% 
15 year fixed FHA 6.133% 6.663% +0.05% 
30 year fixed VA 6.421% 6.654% +0.21% 
15 year fixed VA 6.375% 6.736% +0.09% 
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don't change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Of course, there's a chance that mortgage rates will fall over the next few months. But I reckon rises are more likely.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

Market data affecting today's mortgage rates

Here's a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.77% from 3.79%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were mostly higher soon after opening. (Sometimes bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they're often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices climbed to $80.95 from $76.43 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices rose to $1,747 from $1,743 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index —rose to 64 from 60 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that's no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won't achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. However, be aware that "intraday swings" (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Nov 23rd, 2022)

Important notes on today's mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy's doing well and down when it's in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care'
  2. Only "top-tier" borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you'll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Mortgage rates have been becalmed since their dramatic tumble on Nov. 10. Indeed, according to Mortgage News Daily's archive, they were just 2 basis points higher last night than they were on the morning of Nov. 11.

And a basis point is one-hundredth of 1% (0.01%). So those 2 bps really do represent an imperceptible difference.

The bounce that never came

Ever since that tumble, I've been predicting that mortgage rates would bounce back, at least to a limited extent. But no. Not a sign of one.

For once, I doubt I was wrong to expect one. The Federal Reserve and leading figures in the financial media have all been saying that markets called their play wrongly on Nov. 10.

The fall in mortgage rates was triggered by a single better-than-expected inflation report. And Investing 101 says you never bet heavily on a just one month's report. But betting heavily is precisely what Wall Street did.

So, why's there still been no bounce? I haven't a clue. And, over the weekend, my best guess was a metaphor: Investors are sticking their fingers in their ears and chanting la-la-la-la.

What's next?

Of course, there's still a possibility of investors suddenly recognizing how exposed they are and pushing mortgage rates higher. Or they might choose to wait to see how the next couple of inflation reports turn out. They're due on Dec. 1 and Dec. 13.

If those confirm the Nov. 10 report's inflation trend, mortgage rates might fall even further. But if they show it to be an outlier, stand by for a big — if belated — bounce.

To catch up and to discover more background, please read the weekend edition of this report.

According to Freddie Mac's archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie's Nov. 17 report put that same weekly average at 6.61%, sharply down from the previous week's 7.08%.

Belatedly, from Nov. 17, Freddie has stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later the time of day at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts — updated today

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's forecast appeared on Nov. 22, the MBA's on Oct. 23 and Freddie's on Oct. 21.

Forecaster Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23
Fannie Mae 7.0% 7.0%  6.9% 6.7%
Freddie Mac 6.8% 6.6%  6.5% 6.4%
MBA 6.7% 6.2%  5.7% 5.5%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn't been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

"Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan."

Verify your new rate (Nov 23rd, 2022)

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Login to My Homefinder

Login to My Homefinder