Mortgage and refinance rates today, Oct. 11, 2022

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates rose last Friday, capping a bad week for new borrowers. By some measures, the average rate for a conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage closed at a 20-year high that day.

So far this morning, mortgage rates today look likely to rise again. But that could change later in the day.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Oct 12th, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don't change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

I doubt mortgage rates will fall for long while the Federal Reserve is increasing its rate. And it plans to do that well into 2023.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

Market data affecting today's mortgage rates

Here's a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes nudged up to 3.94% from 3.90%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Sometimes good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they're often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices decreased to $89.61 from $90.26 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices fell to $1,679 from $1,709 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — tumbled to 18 from 27 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that's no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won't achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that "intraday swings" (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Oct 12th, 2022)

Important notes on today's mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy's doing well and down when it's in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care'
2. Only "top-tier" borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you'll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Mortgage rates have been rising, both last week and over the year so far. You don't get to a new 20-year high (as happened last Friday) without some serious mountaineering.

A volatile week ahead?

It's a big week for important economic reports and events. And several of them are capable of moving mortgage rates.

Three concern inflation in September, which is a particular obsession of markets at the moment. The most important is Thursday's consumer price index (CPI). But tomorrow's producer price index and Friday's import price index both give early indications of the direction the CPI will likely take in the coming months.

The other big report this week reveals September's retail sales. This indicates how the economy and consumer confidence are holding up.

This week's important economic event is the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting group, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Markets will be studying in detail these minutes in the hope of gleaning new insights into the Fed's thinking.

Meanwhile, big banks and major companies will be kicking off the reporting season for the third quarter. That's more likely to affect stock markets than mortgage rates, but there might be some indirect impact.

What these might mean for mortgage rates

Of course, nobody has any idea what those reports and minutes will say. Typically, signs that suggest inflation is remaining stubbornly high would likely push mortgage rates upward. The same goes for retail sales: those rates might move higher if the figures are good.

Conversely, of course, rates may well fall if the reports' numbers show lower-than-expected prices and sales.

Similarly, the FOMC minutes might drive mortgage rates higher if they show the Fed to be even more aggressive or "hawkish" than currently believed in its determination to keep hiking rates. But, if those minutes show a softer, more "doveish" line, mortgage rates could fall. I wouldn't hold my breath on the latter.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background about mortgage rates generally.

Recent trends

According to Freddie Mac's archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie's Oct. 6 report put that same weekly average at 6.66% (with 0.8 fees and points), down slightly from the previous week's 6.7%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points ("with 0.8 fees and points") on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don't do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote. Belatedly, Freddie says it plans to stop including discount points in its forecasts later this year.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's forecast appeared on Sep. 21 and the MBA's on Sep. 20. Freddie's came out around Jul. 21. But it now releases forecasts only quarterly. So, its figures soon turn stale.

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn't been wildly impressive. Personally, I think they're too optimistic.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

"Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan."

Verify your new rate (Oct 12th, 2022)

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.