Mortgage and refinance rates today, July 5, 2022

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Markets were closed yesterday for Independence Day. And average mortgage rates fell last Friday, once again significantly. Last week was a seriously good one for those rates. However, it wasn't as good as one June week was bad. So, let's not get carried away.

Still, the good news seems to be continuing this morning. Because, first thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might move lower. But, as always, that could change as the hours pass.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Jul 6th, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don't change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

I'm less certain in my doom-mongering than I have been for some time. However, on the balance of probabilities, I still think mortgage rates are more likely to rise over this month than fall.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term must remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

  Market data affecting today's mortgage rates

  Here's a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 2.82% from 2.9%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they're often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices fell to $103.10 from $108.14 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices fell to $1,791 from $1,804 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 19 from 24 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

  *A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

  Caveats about markets and rates

  Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that's no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won't achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

  So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. However, be aware that "intraday swings" (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

  Find your lowest rate. Start here (Jul 6th, 2022)
  
  

  Important notes on today's mortgage rates

  Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy's doing well and down when it's in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care'
  2. Only "top-tier" borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you'll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

  A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

  Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

  Mortgage rates rose only a tiny bit in June. And they fell back on Jul. 1, leaving them back where they were on Jun. 6, according to Mortgage News Daily's archive.

  You can see why I wrote earlier that I'm less certain in my doom-mongering. However, it's not those rate figures that are mainly swaying me. It's the possibility that inflation might soon begin to level out and fall, which would mean the Federal Reserve would not have to hike interest rates as much as currently planned.

  Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal (paywall) ran a story under the headline, "Falling Commodity Prices Raise Hopes That Inflation Has Peaked." And it began, "A slide in all manner of raw-materials prices — corn, wheat, copper and more — is stirring hopes that a significant source of inflationary pressure might be starting to ease."

  Another Journal article, written on Sunday, reported: "China's slowdown may have a silver lining for the rest of the world: weaker inflation. Growth in the world's second-largest economy has tumbled this year as COVID-19 outbreaks triggered mass lockdowns and business closures."

  Is the Fed helpless?

  There's always been an argument (I've mentioned it previously) that current inflation levels have been caused by supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine. We could see that in real time as it happened. Lower supply resulting from those events met continuing demand, and prices rose. Economics 101.

  So, if old monetary policy (the Fed leaving rates low and building its assets) didn't cause inflation, why should we think new monetary policy (the Fed hiking rates and disposing of assets) will fix it? By this argument, the most likely outcome of the central bank's actions is a recession with only a limited effect on prices.

  That would normally be good news for mortgage rates but for little else. However, as I've been highlighting recently, the highest mortgage rates in history happened during a recession — because the Fed was furiously hiking its rates at the time.

  What's next?

  This is a roundabout way of saying nobody can be certain what's next for the economy or mortgage rates. My colleague Paul Centopani just posted his monthly column, Mortgage interest rate predictions: Will rates go down in July 2022?

  And most of the mortgage experts he quoted believe mortgage rates are more likely to rise than fall in July. However, the minority taking the opposite view was persuasive.

  For now, I'm sticking to my guns because I still think mortgage rates are overall more likely to rise than fall this month. But I'll be watching closely in the hope more evidence begins to emerge to the contrary.

  Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

  Recent trends
  

  Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

  The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

  Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they've been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May was a kinder month.

  Freddie's June 30 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.70% (with 0.9 fees and points), down from the previous week's 5.81%.

  Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points ("with 0.9 fees and points") on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don't do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

  Expert mortgage rate forecasts

  Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

  And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

  The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's were published on Jun. 16, and the MBA's on Jun. 10. Freddie's were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly, so they're already looking stale.

  Forecaster	Q2/22	Q3/22	Q4/22	Q1/23
  Fannie Mae	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
  Freddie Mac	4.8%	4.8%	5.0%	5.0%
  MBA	5.1%	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%

  Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look that way.

  Find your lowest rate today

  You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

  "Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan."

  Verify your new rate (Jul 6th, 2022)
  
  

  Mortgage rate methodology

  The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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National Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day

Sure, everyone loves vanilla and strawberry, but Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day is all about trying something unique, like lavender ice cream or pickle ice cream.

Vanilla is often touted as the favorite flavor of ice cream, but we think that's just because people haven't been daring enough with their ice cream choices. National Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day encourages you to take your taste buds to the rodeo and give a new flavor a try!

Learn about National Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day

As the name suggests, the purpose of National Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day is to branch away from vanilla ice cream and try something completely out-of-the-norm. It is up to you how far you go with this. For example, if you are someone who barely ever tries anything but vanilla, you may want to give mint choc chip a try or some rum and raisin ice cream.

For you, that may be pushing the boat out! For someone else, they may feel like they have already tried every sort of ice cream that is commercially available. If you fall into this category, then why not use National Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day in order to come up with a flavor of ice cream that you've never tried before or seen in any stores?

You can go as wild and unusual as you like. You can try different flavors, such as adding herbs, like basil into the mix, and other different concoctions. It is up to you. Or, you could try and turn your favorite chocolate bar or candy into an ice cream treat? This is an approach that never fails. After all, if it tastes good as chocolate, the chances are that it is going to taste pretty amazing when turned into ice cream, right?

Did you know that Ben & Jerry's receive more than 13,000 flavor suggestions from fans each year? They have published some of the weirdest suggestions they have received.

This includes Salty Licorice, which is vanilla ice cream, with swirls of salty and sweet licorice in order to create a black-and-white striped experience. Someone suggested Pepperoni flavor – a simple vanilla ice cream with chunks of candied pepperoni. Yum!

Although, we think we would probably rather eat that than the Gregarious Gorgonzola that was requested by one fan. They want dark chocolate ice cream that features gorgonzola cheese and raspberry jam. Another fan wanted Ben & Jerry's to create macaroni ice cream, called Mac and Freeze. Oh, and we can't forget about Spuds and Fudge, which would be chocolate ice cream with bits of candied French fries. Do any of these flavors float your boat?

History Of National Creative Ice Cream Flavors Day

When people think about flavors of ice cream, they mostly think about what they can get off the grocery store shelves or from 31 flavors. When you take a moment to consider that ice cream was first invented in the 5th Century BC by the Ancient Greeks, and from there has traveled around the world and through every culture, you realize that the smattering of flavors you've experienced in your life is just the beginning. Somehow this seems like a perfect metaphor about our daily lives as well, don't you think?

Do you like vanilla ice cream? Chocolate? What about strawberry? Chances are you love all these flavors, but have you ever considered saffron ice cream? What about rose flavored? These are just some of the flavors that were possible in years past, and doesn't even begin to cover the absolute rainbow of flavors that come from fruits!

Of course, most of these probably don't seem all that unusual or creative, do they? That's ok! If you're truly feeling adventurous you can try crab and oyster flavored ice cream, or garlic flavored!

July 2022 Calendar of United States of America

July 2022 Holidays and Celebrations

• 01FRI
  International Joke Day
• 01FRI
  Battle of Gettysburg
• 01FRI
  National Postal Worker Day
• 01FRI
  World Bronchiectasis Day
• 02SAT
  Civil Rights Act
• 02SAT
  International Day of Cooperatives
• 02SAT
  World UFO Day
• 03SUN
  National Stay Out of the Sun Day
• 03SUN
  International Plastic Bag Free Day
• 04MON
  Independence Day
• 04MON
  Truman Doctrine
• 05TUE
  National Bikini Day
• 05TUE
  National Workaholics Day
• 06WED
  National Fried Chicken Day
• 06WED
  International Kissing Day
• 07THU
  Global Forgiveness Day
• 07THU
  World Chocolate Day
• 08FRI
  National Video Game Day
• 09SAT
  Eid al-Adha
• 10SUN
  National Kitten Day
• 11MON
  International Town Criers Day
• 11MON
  World Population Day
• 12TUE
  National Simplicity Day
• 12TUE
  Cow Appreciation Day
• 12TUE
  Malala Day
• 12TUE
  Orangemen's Day (The Twelfth)
• 13WED
  Nathan Bedford Forrest Day
• 13WED
  National French Fry Day
• 14THU
  Pandemonium Day
• 14THU
  National Mac and Cheese Day
• 15FRI
  National Give Something Away Day
• 15FRI
  National Clean Beauty Day
• 16SAT
  National Cherry Day
• 17SUN
  National Lottery Day
• 17SUN
  World Emoji Day
• 17SUN
  National Ice Cream Day
• 18MON
  Nelson Mandela International Day
• 18MON
  World Listening Day
• 19TUE
  Seneca Falls Convention
• 20WED
  National Moon Day
• 20WED
  International Chess Day
• 20WED
  World Jump Day
• 21THU
  National Junk Food Day
• 22FRI
  National Hammock Day
• 23SAT
  National Gorgeous Grandma Day
• 24SUN
  Parents' Day
• 24SUN
  Moon Landing
• 24SUN
  Pioneer Day
• 24SUN
  National Drive-Thru Day
• 24SUN
  Cousins Day
• 25MON
  National Hire A Veteran Day
• 26TUE
  Uncle and Aunt Day
• 27WED
  National Creme Brûlée Day
• 27WED
  National Disability Independence Day
• 28THU
  Bonus Army
• 28THU
  World War I
• 28THU
  National Milk Chocolate Day
• 28THU
  National Intern Day
• 29FRI
  NASA is Founded
• 29FRI
  National Lipstick Day
• 29FRI
  International Tiger Day
• 29FRI
  National Lasagna Day
• 30SAT
  Muharram
• 30SAT
  National Father-in-Law Day
• 30SAT
  National Cheesecake Day
• 30SAT
  World Day Against Trafficking in Persons
• 30SAT
  International Friendship Day
• 31SUN
  National Avocado Day
• 31SUN
  World Ranger Day

The 8 Best Places to Sell Your Old Smart Home Gadgets

BY ADRIAN NITA

Are you looking to get rid of some old smart home gadgets? Maybe you're upgrading to newer models or just decluttering your home. Whatever the reason, selling your old smart home gadgets can be a great way to make some extra money.

No matter what kind of smart home gadgets you have, there's a good chance you can sell them and get some money back. Here are some of the best places to sell your old smart home gadgets.

1. Decluttr

Decluttr is a great option if you want to sell your old smart home gadgets quickly and easily. All you have to do is enter the name of the gadget you want to sell, and Decluttr will give you an instant valuation.

If you're happy with the offer, the company will send you a shipping label, so you can send your items for free. Once your items are received, you'll get paid the next day via PayPal, direct deposit, or check.

The turnaround time is around 3-5 days, including shipping.

It's a great way to get rid of old smart home gadgets without having to deal with the hassle of listing them individually on a marketplace, but you will likely get less money than you would if you sold them yourself.

2. Amazon Trade-In

Amazon Trade-In is an excellent option if you're looking to get Amazon gift cards in exchange for your old smart home gadgets.

To get started, you'll need to search for the gadget you want to sell on Amazon's website. Once you've found it, select the condition of the gadget, and Amazon will provide you with an estimated value.

If you're happy with the offer, you can print out a shipping label and send your gadget to Amazon for free. Once the company receives and inspects your item, you'll get an Amazon gift card for the appraised value.

It's a quick and easy way to get rid of old smart home gadgets, and you'll be able to use Amazon gift cards to buy new gadgets or anything else you want from Amazon.

If you prefer to trade in your gadgets in person, you can also take them to certain physical Amazon locations that will appraise and accept your items on the spot.

With certain gadgets, you can also get a discount coupon on a new gadget when you trade in your old one, making it a great option if you're looking to upgrade.

Amazon offers free shipping and pays out via Amazon gift card.

The turnaround time is around two days after Amazon receives your gadget.

3. ItsWorthMore

If you're looking for a slightly higher payout than what Amazon or Decluttr offers, ItsWorthMore may be a good option for you.

Like Decluttr, ItsWorthMore, you will need to answer a few questions about your gadget like the model, condition, and any included accessories.

Although ItsWorthMore doesn't accept as wide a range of smart home gadgets as Decluttr, they do accept smart home control hubs and smartwatches.

After that, you'll get an instant quote and can decide whether or not you want to move forward with the sale.

ItsWorthMore offers free shipping and pays out via PayPal, check, or Zelle once the company has received and inspected your items.

The turnaround time is around up to 5 days.

4. Apple Trade In

Want to trade in your old Apple smart home gadgets to get a discount on a new one? Apple Trade In is the perfect place to do that.

From Apple TV to the HomePod, Apple Trade In accepts a wide range of Apple smart home gadgets.

The only downside is that you can only trade in Apple products, so if you have any non-Apple gadgets, you'll need to look elsewhere.

To get started, simply bring your old Apple gadget into an Apple Store or go to the Apple Trade In website and enter your gadget's information.

Apple will give you an estimated trade-in value, which you can then use to get a discount on a new Apple product.

You can also choose to receive an Apple Store gift card instead of using the trade-in value towards a new purchase.

Apple offers free shipping or in-store trade-in and pays out via Apple Store gift card or instant credit towards a new purchase.

The turnaround time can take up to a couple of weeks if done online or instant if done in-store.

5. Best Buy Trade-In Program

Want to get rid of old smart home gadgets and receive a Best Buy gift card in return? If so, the Best Buy Trade-In Program is a great option.

It's a similar process to the other trade-in programs on this list. First, you'll need to find your gadget on Best Buy's website and answer a few questions about its condition.

After that, Best Buy will provide you with an estimated value for your gadget. If you're happy with the offer, you can print out a shipping label and send your gadget to Best Buy for free.

Once the company receives and inspects your item, you'll get a Best Buy gift card for the appraised value.

Best Buy offers free shipping and pays out via Best Buy gift card.

The turnaround time is up to 9 days when done online or instant when done in-store.

6. Swappa

If you don't mind waiting a bit for your smart home gadgets to sell, then Swappa is a great option. You can choose your price, and you won't have to pay any listing fees. The only fee you'll pay is a selling fee after your item sells, depending on how much it sells for.

To get started, create a listing for your gadget on Swappa and include as many details as possible, such as photos, condition, included accessories, etc.

Once your listing is live, potential buyers will be able to contact you to purchase your gadget.

The payment process is handled through PayPal, and you'll be responsible for shipping the item to the buyer.

The turnaround time on Swappa can vary depending on how quickly your item sells.

7. eBay

If you're looking for a platform with a large audience, then eBay is your best bet.

Selling on eBay is a pretty straightforward process, and you can list your old smart home gadgets easily.

You'll need to take some good-quality photos, write a detailed description, and set your price.

eBay does charge listing fees as well as a final value fee (which is a percentage of the total sale price), so keep that in mind when pricing your item.

Creating a listing is free, and you can choose to auction off your gadget or set a fixed price.

You'll also be responsible for shipping your gadget to the buyer, and payments are handled through PayPal.

The turnaround time on eBay can vary depending on how quickly your item sells, so it may take a while to receive payment.

8. Facebook Marketplace

Selling locally has never been easier, thanks to Facebook Marketplace. This feature allows anyone with a Facebook account to buy and sell items within their community.

If you're looking to get rid of your old smart home gadgets, Facebook Marketplace is a great place to start. You can create a listing for each item you're selling, and potential buyers can contact you directly to make an offer.

The best part about selling on Facebook Marketplace is that it's completely free. There are no fees or commissions to worry about.

Although Facebook Marketplace has pros and cons, it's definitely a quick and easy way to sell your old smart home gadgets.

The only downside is that you'll need to handle payment and shipping on your own.

The turnaround time on Facebook Marketplace can vary depending on how quickly your item sells.

An Easier Way to Sell Your Old Smart Home Gadgets

Selling your old smart home gadgets doesn't have to be difficult. With plenty of hassle-free trade-in and resale options available, you can get rid of your unwanted gadgets and receive payment quickly and easily.

Don't let your old gadgets collect dust and take up space. Use one of the options on this list to get rid of them for good and earn some extra cash in the process.

Mortgage and refinance rates today, June 18,

and rate forecast for next week

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday, mirroring the previous day's similarly tiny rise. However, those movements don't reflect the week as a whole, which has been disastrous for those rates. And those for conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been above 6% since Monday.

I guess I should resume my rate predictions for the week ahead, even though current volatility means you should have minimal confidence in their accuracy — as do I. I think, on balance, mortgage rates are more likely to rise than fall next week.

Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. So we'll be back with our daily reports on Tuesday.

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 20th, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 20th, 2022)

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don't change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Average mortgage rates have climbed sharply higher so far in June. True, there was a day when they fell significantly, too. But, overall, the month (and especially the last eight days) has been shockingly bad. Who, 18 days ago, would have thought the most popular rate would be above 6% today?

We might be in for a somewhat calmer time now markets have had a chance to digest Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcements. Let's hope volatility gently fades.

But I guess that mortgage rates won't fall far or for long until inflation levels off and begins to drop. In the meantime, I reckon mortgage rate rises are likely to outweigh falls.

And so, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your personal tolerance for risk help guide you.

What's moving current mortgage rates

Last week, I was quoting Mortgage News Daily's (MND's) data, marveling that "the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage soared by 30 basis points yesterday (a basis point is one-hundredth of 1%). In other words, they jumped from 5.55% to 5.85%." Today, seven days later, that rate is 6.03%, according to the same source.

I'd be shocked if those rates were to continue to climb so quickly. That's highly unlikely now that markets have digested both last Friday's inflation data and this Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcements.

Still, I shouldn't be a bit surprised if they were to continue to rise but much more gently. As long as inflation remains uncomfortably hot, it will be a tough sell to get investors to buy bonds. And mortgage rates are primarily determined by the yields on one type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS).

You can understand why bonds are so unattractive when inflation is running hot. Investors are buying a fixed income, a "yield." And, with nearly all bonds (really risky ones would be the exception) currently, yields are lower than the inflation rate. So every bond bought has a real-terms (after inflation) loss baked in.

Bear market

So why are investors still buying MBS and other bonds? It's a bit like the old joke about the two hikers in the woods who encounter a bear. One changes into trainers, and the other says, "You can't outrun a bear." The other replies, "I don't have to. I just have to outrun you."

There's a parallel with bonds. While stock markets are looking so dicey, investors crave the security of safe investments, such as MBSs. And those MBSs don't have to deliver a real-terms profit. They just have to outrun other financial contenders in the risks and rewards they offer.

High demand for MBSs pushes mortgage rates lower. This is a bit counterintuitive. But it's easy to grasp once you recognize that bond prices always move inversely to their yields. So higher demand = higher prices = lower yields (and mortgage rates). Lower demand = lower prices = higher yields (and mortgage rates).

What's next for mortgage rates?

Of course, nobody can be sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the future. Those who try to peer ahead can only weigh the likelihood of different possible scenarios and extrapolate from there. No wonder experts often disagree.

I suspect inflation will continue to be high for months to come, perhaps well into 2023. That depends on various things, including how quickly the Fed's anti-inflation measures take to work and how long Russia's war in Ukraine drags on.

And, despite the bear metaphor, I doubt investors will be piling into MBSs until inflation has leveled out and begun to fall.

To me, that implies mortgage rates will continue to rise, though, with luck, at a more gentle pace than so far in 2022. Of course, there will always be days and weeks when those rates fall. Such periods are inevitable.

But I'm not convinced those rates will fall back to their pandemic-era and pre-pandemic levels for a very long time.

If you look back through Freddie Mac's archives, you'll see that 6.x% mortgage rates were common before 2008 and would often have been perceived as low. It may be that the last 14 years have been the freaky exception and that we're returning to normalcy.

Economic reports next week

Next week is very light on economic reports. Several top Fed officials have speaking engagements, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will be testifying on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets will be listening to both the tone and content of what's said as they try to assess what the Fed might do next to tackle inflation.

The potentially most important reports, below, are set in bold. The others are unlikely to move markets much unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Tuesday — May existing home sales
• Thursday — Weekly new claims for unemployment insurance to Jun. 18
• Friday — June consumer sentiment index, plus five-year inflation expectations. Also, May new home sales

In a quiet week, Fed speakers are most likely to move mortgage rates.

Verify your new rate (Jun 20th, 2022)

Mortgage interest rates forecast for next week

Please don't take my weekly forecasts too seriously. There's too much volatility in markets for them to be reliable. But I'm guessing mortgage rates might move a little higher next week. Even if I'm wrong over timing, I'd expect slightly higher rates soon.

Mortgage and refinance rates usually move in tandem. And the scrapping of the adverse market refinance fee last year has largely eliminated a gap that had grown between the two.

Meanwhile, another recent regulatory change has likely made mortgages for investment properties and vacation homes more accessible and less costly.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that's highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy's in trouble.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they're not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you're working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So focus on your "PITI." That's your Principal (pays down the amount you borrowed), Interest (the price of borrowing), (property) Taxes, and (homeowners) Insurance. Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So you'll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There's no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you'll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan's term, making that higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you're a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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Great landscaping is both an art and a science. We know creating the perfect yard takes time and practice, and it's well worth it. Remember, beautiful landscaping can make or break your curb appeal. Therefore, learning best practices and avoiding mistakes can really help boost your property value and attract attention when it comes time to sell your home.

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Mortgage and refinance rates today, June 10, 2022

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates moved moderately higher yesterday. And they're now perilously close to the 13-year-record highs we saw in early May.

Markets have been roiled by this morning's publication of May's consumer price index. And, so far, it's looking as if mortgage rates today might rise again.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Jun 10th, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don't change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

This morning's inflation data (the consumer price index) may well generate turbulence in markets. But it's unlikely to reset the trend in mortgage rates. Because there's more — potentially bigger — news coming down the line next week.

I can't yet find a good reason to change my mind over the likely future direction of mortgage rates. And I still think they're more likely to rise than fall. But, with luck, the pace of rises may slow.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

  Market data affecting today's mortgage rates

  Here's a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes inched up to 3.11% from 3.03%. (Very bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were sharply lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they're often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices were unchanged at $121.27 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices fell to $1,832 from $1,850 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 29 from 35 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

  *A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

  Caveats about markets and rates

  Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that's no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won't achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

  So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might rise. However, be aware that "intraday swings" (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

  Find your lowest rate. Start here (Jun 10th, 2022)
  
  

  Important notes on today's mortgage rates

  Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy's doing well and down when it's in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care'
  2. Only "top-tier" borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you'll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

  A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

  Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

  This morning's release of May's consumer price index (CPI) was undoubtedly important. Investors are obsessed with inflation data.

  We now know that inflation that month resumed its march higher. And at a faster pace than most economists expected. In a breaking news email earlier, The Financial Times said:

  US consumer price growth resumed its rapid rise in May, accelerating 1 percent during the month as rising inflation in the services sector added urgency to the Federal Reserve's plans to aggressively tighten monetary policy.

  But it's so far unclear how markets will respond to this morning's report, once they've fully digested it. Often, important economic data provoke an initial knee-jerk reaction in markets only for that to change later in the day as investors think through the implications.

  Crucial Fed meeting next week

  Today, investors will be wondering whether and how this morning's figures will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), when it meets next week. We'll know more next Wednesday (Jun. 15) at 2 p.m. (ET), when the FOMC issues a post-meeting statement, which will include some policy plans. And there will be a news conference, hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 30 minutes later.

  If the FOMC delivers definitive guidance next week, mortgage rates may settle down a bit. But if it leaves plenty of uncertainty in place, you should probably expect the current volatility to continue.

  Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

  Recent trends
  

  Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

  The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

  Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they've been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May was a kinder month.

  Freddie's June 9 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.23% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week's 5.09%.

  Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points ("with 0.9 fees and points") on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don't do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

  Expert mortgage rate forecasts

  Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

  And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

  The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's were published on May 19, and the MBA's on May 16. Freddie's were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly so they're already looking stale.

  Forecaster	Q2/22	Q3/22	Q4/22	Q1/23
  Fannie Mae	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%
  Freddie Mac	4.8%	4.8%	5.0%	5.0%
  MBA	5.2%	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%

  Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

  Find your lowest rate today

  You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

  "Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan."

  Verify your new rate (Jun 10th, 2022)
  
  

  Mortgage rate methodology

  The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.